Is the graduate labour market about to collapse?

I’ve just published a new article on Luminate reporting on the results to the Institute of Student Employers mid-season pulse survey. In the article I try and reflect on the findings and consider what their wider implications are.

This is what I had to say…

ISE spends a lot of time surveying graduate employers to ask them about how things are going. Since 2016 the answer has generally been pretty positive and in September, based on the last season, employers were reporting that the graduate labour market was going from strength to strength with a 10% increase in the number of vacancies. However, just before Christmas we surveyed employers about this year and they were much more gloomy, predicting only 3% growth over the current year.

Read on…

I end up making the following prediction…

Graduate employers will continue to be cautious throughout the rest of the recruitment season. By the end of the year they will have revised down their recruitment targets and recruited around the same number or slightly fewer graduates than last year. If the economy develops as predicted we will then see modest growth next year. But if Brexit goes badly or there is a global economic shock all bets are off.

Read the rest of the article to understand why I’m saying this.

I finish the article by explaining why you should treat my predictions with extreme caution. But, as of now, this is my best guess about what is going on. I’d be interested to hear more about what others think.


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